Managing Expectations

In just over three weeks the FIFA Women’s World Cup will kick off in Australia and New Zealand.

Without doubt this will be the biggest event for football in this part of the World, surpassing the Asian Cup hosting in 2015, and the U21 World Cups hosted by Australia in 1981 and 1993 and New Zealand 2015.

Some in the media have tried to claim the event as the biggest sporting event to be hosted by Australia, but that is debatable, many will claim that the Cricket and Rugby World Cups were bigger. The Olympic Games can lay claim to being the biggest, as traditionally only the Men’s Football World Cup commands a bigger audience.

Australians in general love their sport. They are also very proud of their national teams, and how for a country of its size it manages to compete at the highest level in so many sports on the world stage.

That was partly why the actions of the Australian cricket team in 2018 where they were caught cheating damaged not only the team’s status in the hearts of many Australians, but also the sport. Even now with the Ashes taking place it is remarkable how many Australians have said they do not want this generation to be victorious. Possibly because they lost the trust of so many.

Understandably there is much excitement around the FIFA Women’s World Cup taking place in Australia for the first time ever. Following the TV wrangle with FIFA and the issue of the kick-off times in Europe it is unlikely many of us will ever in our lifetimes see in an event such as this hosted in this part of the world again.

Some of this excitement has been built up around stories that the Matildas, the Australian Women’s team, has the chance to win the World Cup on home soil.  Of course, every team competing has a chance of winning. However how many have a realistic chance?

While it is always great to dream, and true fans will always believe that anything is possible the reality is an Australian victory is possible, but unlikely.

Some writers have claimed that the Matildas are Australia’s greatest female sporting team. Again, this is extremely debatable, ill-informed, and insulting to other women’s sporting teams.

For example, the Australian Diamonds Netball team has won 11 World Netball Championships. Sine the world event started in 1963 they have come second in the four that they did not win. They have won four Commonwealth Games gold medals, and again come second in the other three events.

The Australian women’s Hockey team, the Hockeyroos, have won two of the 12 World Cups held in their sport, and come second three times. They have won three Olympic Gold medals, four Commonwealth Gold Medals and six Champions trophies.

The Australian Women’s cricket team has won seven Cricket World Cups out of the 12 ODI tournaments contested. When it comes to the shorter T20 format they have won six of the eight titles and were runner up in one of the two they did not win.

When it comes to the Matildas their best finish at a World Cup is 6^th in 2007. At the Olympic Games they have only qualified four times and their best finish was in Tokyo 2020 when they finished fourth. However, they did win the Asian Cup in 2010 and have been runners up three times.  

Of course, it is hard to compare when some sports are not in the Olympic Games and others are, some are in the Commonwealth Games, but others are not. Some will also argue that football is the “world game,” and so more nations compete, but ultimately nations and teams across all sports are judged by results, what titles they win.

So, while the Matildas may well be the most-loved female team in Australia at this point in time, saying that they are the best is carrying that fandom a little too far.

The Matildas are currently ranked 10^th in the World. No team ranked as low has ever lifted the Women’s World Cup. That does not mean that it cannot happen, just that history will tell you it is unlikely.

Yet certain sections of the media in Australia have been pumping up a fervour of belief that this is a real possibility. Admittedly many of these stories have been written by people most football followers in Australia would never have heard of. The regular football writers who know the game have been far more tempered with their stories.

This is sadly a reflection of the media landscape in Australia in recent years. One must be very selective in relation to what one reads and by whom it is written. Too many of the stories are simply sensationalist and lack any real knowledge or substance. Frequently even getting the terminology wrong.  

While it is great to read the back stories to the players that may make the final cut in coach Tony Gustavsson’s squad for the tournament, some of the comments reported, while no doubt intended to come across as confidence and a belief within the team, have had an air of arrogance about them.

Which is at odds with the brand that the past Matildas have created. Yes, this was a tough determined, committed, and focused representative team at international level, but one of the things that made people fall in love with the Matildas was their humility. They went about their business quietly and let their play on the pitch speak for them. This was full of passion and determination and a joy when they won.

No doubt Football Australia is welcoming every bit of publicity that they can garner at this time, as the Matildas are at present their most publicly acceptable and respected brand. As they say no publicity is bad publicity. However, when people use that line, they forget to add, ‘as long as it is managed well.’

While modern-day athletes are frequently muzzled in terms of what they can and cannot say to the media, and hence why we have to endure trite comments and observations, one feels that this onslaught could have and should have been managed better.

Football Australia has taken a huge risk allowing so many of these stories to come out on the eve of a World Cup, especially one that they are hosting. They are building high expectations. Some Australians who do not follow the sport closely are now of the opinion that Australia are favourites to win the World Cup.  

There needs to be expectation, but that expectation must be tempered. It has to be realistic and managed. A failure to do so could end up seriously damaging a brand that has been built up by all who have worn the shirt in the past 25-30 years.

In fact, some of those ex-players have themselves have commented privately that the media coverage has made them ‘uncomfortable.’

Some of this hype is based around Australia having arguably at the current time the best striker in Women’s football as their captain, Sam Kerr.

However, again a word of caution is needed, as one player does not make a team. There have been many superb players in World Football who have never been able to achieve the highest honours in the game at international level. For Kerr and the rest to achieve their dream of winning the World Cup at home, every single player that takes the field is going to need to be at their peak. Heading into the competition they need to have had game time. World Cups are not won on reputations, they are won on performance.

This will undoubtedly be Kerr’s biggest test. To see if she can influence her team and drive them on the way that Abby Wambach did with the USA and Homare Sawa of Japan.

Also, International sport is very different from club competition. At international level the collective quality is much higher. Teams and coaches, just as club sides do, will have done their homework and they will be aware as to who the danger players are in each team. The difference is in the international arena they usually have the quality to match their opponents and reduce their impact. They will have a plan to negate those players of influence, and in some cases will resort to whatever it takes to reduce their impact.

The key component in international football is not only the calibre of the players, but also the calibre of the coach.

This is to some Australia’s Achilles heel, their coach, Tony Gustavsson. He inherited a talented group of players but under him the performances have been far from impressive. Some will say the victory over England was, but a friendly leading into a World Cup when most coaches are trying new things and players it holds little importance.

Gustavsson has a record in charge of the Matildas of having overseen 35 games. The team has won 16 and lost 14 with five draws. One has to go back to the reign of Adrian Santrac from 2001 to 2004 to find a worse winning percentage.  Gustavsson’s is 45.71. (As of 11 April 2023)

He oversaw the Matildas at the delayed Tokyo Olympic Games, where the team failed to impress. They progressed as one of the best performing third placed teams in their group with one win, one draw and one loss.

In the quarter finals they staged a remarkable comeback against Great Britain after being 2-1 down, to end up winning 4-3 after extra time. The team would lose their semi-final and the bronze medal match, where despite the score line (4-3) they were outclassed by the USA. So at the end of the tournament had two wins, three losses and one draw. Hardly World-beating form.

Here Gustavsson came under the microscope for the style of play, and some of his selections, as he appeared to still not know the best players at his disposal in key positions.

Then came the Asian Cup, a tournament Australia had won once and played in four of the last five finals. The expectation was that they would again be in the final match. After topping their pool undefeated the team bowed out at the quarter final stage.

The coach defended poor results in friendlies before these major tournaments, saying that the team was in “preparation mode.” At that time, he requested that judgement be delayed until the Matildas were in “performance mode” at these tournaments.

Following the failure at the Asian Cup there were calls for the coach’s head. Rumours started to circulate that he had lost the players. Certainly, his credentials to coach at this level came under scrutiny. While enjoying success as assistant manager to Pia Sundhage with the USA Women’s national team, Gustavsson’s career as a head coach has seen him more involved with avoiding relegation than winning things. Although when in charge of Tyresö FF he did manage them to their first Damallsvenskan title back in 2012.

Football Australia decided to stick with the coach. The word was they felt it was too late to make a change. The concern for many followers of the game was that the team no longer had a discernable style of play and the coach has seemed reliant on his bigger name players to eke out a result.  

What is interesting is while the players have been talking to all and sundry in the media, we have heard very little from the coach. Again, some who have played at this level are questioning why this is, and whether the coach should have put a lid on some of the player interviews with less than a month to go until the tournament starts, especially with Australia being the host nation and with expectations rising.

Of course, the whole nation wants to see the Matildas succeed, but to many who follow the game there are concerns as to whether the man in charge can deliver, and match those expectations. How far can they realistically go in the tournament? What has Gustavsson been told he must achieve?

In the history of the Women’s World Cup never has the host nation bowed out at the Group stage; hopefully that does not happen in 2023, although New Zealand may claim that first.

In eight editions of the World Cup the host nation has bowed out at the quarter final stage six times. They have claimed bronze once, and only won it once and that was in 1999 in the USA.

If Australia can live up to the hype, they will definitely rewrite the history books. If they don’t the Matildas image could suffer a setback. A setback that will hurt the sport for a period of time. It will also inevitably lead to a search for a scapegoat, and whether the coach, and those who stuck by him will remain in their jobs we will have to wait and see. No matter what transpires ultimately, the Matildas brand and team will bounce back.

Right now, the prudent thing to do is to manage the expectations.